Throughout Japan, disaster-preparedness maps have been made by the method of town-walk. This method improves disaster-preparedness and allows for a greater understanding of the area. The making of disaster-preparedness maps increases the disaster awareness of the participants. Further, the involvement improves participants' ability of self-help and increases cooperation in local communities. Currently, there is a system to support the making of conventional disaster-preparedness maps, but no support system for maps made using the town-walk method. Therefore, we have proposed and developed an integrated support system for the making of disaster-preparedness maps by gathering information from the town-walk. We conducted a comparison experiment between the proposed system and the conventional system (using paper maps). This experiment demonstrated that a consistent support function would be effective in developing disaster-preparedness maps using the town-walk method. We also confirmed that the proposed system influences the improvement of disaster-preparedness awareness, the understanding of the area, and the conventional system.

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Publishing type：Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution)   International / domestic magazine：Domestic journal  

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Other URL： http://repository.center.wakayama-u.ac.jp/3376

Publishing type：Research paper (international conference proceedings)  

Other URL： https://dblp.uni-trier.de/db/conf/collabtech/collabtech2018.html#Enokida0FSE18

Authorship：Lead author  

 The development of the city occurs not only above ground but also underground. Underground infrastructure is especially vulnerable to flood damage, caused by extreme events and natural disasters, as it forms the lowest layer un the hierarchy of urban structure. However, despite the increasing importance of urban inundation analysis, the lack of availability of data regarding underground space restricted analysis in previous studies. In this study, we established three-dimensional GIS data of subways using records and drawings of construction, which can be used for underground infrastructure inundation analysis in urban areas. Utilizing this established three-dimensional subway GIS data, we modeled and analyzed the areas of subway stations and train lines to be inundated by the projected Nankai Trough Earthquake. 82% of Nagoya city's Meiko Line close to the coastal area is expected to be submerged by an over 1m-deep flooding, and tsunami run-up through the train line is estimated to occur.

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J-GLOBAL

J-GLOBAL

Publishing type：Part of collection (book)  

For speedy recovery from a natural disaster, it is necessary to estimate in advance the amount of material stock that may lose its capacity to provide intended services (lost stock), and the distribution of such stock. We describe the method of estimating the amount of materials accumulated as constructions, then show how the amount of lost stock is estimated. Finally, we consider Map Layered Japan, a website delivering the results of the lost stock estimation.

It is important to develop the information of the resilience of the region for large-scale natural disasters in order to take measure of disaster prevention and disaster mitigation. This study tries to evaluation of regional resilience based on decrease in Quality of Life (QOL) after large -scale disasters by simulating direct damage and setting recovery scenarios. Result of applying Nankai Trough earth quake, QOL in the inland was recovered, but in the coastal area that suffered Tsunami damage, QOL of recovery was slow. By recovery scenarios of road assumed on the basis of the policy of “Kushi no ha operations” support advances from the areas along major highway surrounding area, showed that play an important role in QOL recovery.

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Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal)  

In order to fully comprehend the socioeconomic metabolic (SEM) dynamics and material balance of nations, long-term accounting of economy-wide material stock is necessary in parallel to material flow accounts. Nevertheless, material stock accounts have been scarce, isolated, and mostly focused either on single materials, short time spans, or small regions. This study has two objectives: (1) review the state of the art of material stock research in the SEM discourse and (2) present a project to map, in a high level of detail, the in-use construction material stocks of Japan and its 47 prefectures from the 1940s until the present era. This project documents the two major depositories of material stock: buildings and infrastructure. We describe the challenges and benefits of utilizing a bottom-up approach, in order to promote its usage in material stock studies. The resulting database presents the accumulation of stock over time, as well as visually displaying the spatial distribution of the stock using geographical information systems (GIS), which, we argue, is an essential aspect of material stock analysis in the context of socioeconomic metabolism research.

DOI： 10.1111/jiec.12284

Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal)  

Forecasting the maize yield of China's Jilin province from 1962 to 2004, with climate conditions and fertilizer as predictors, was investigated using multiple linear regression (MLR) and non-linear artificial neural network (ANN) models. Yield was set to be a function of precipitation from July to August, precipitation in September and the amount of fertilizer used. Fertilizer emerged as the dominant predictor and was non-linearly related to yield in the ANN model. Given the difficulty of acquiring fertilizer data for maize, the current study was also tested using the previous year's yield in the place of fertilizer data. Forecast skill scores computed under both cross-validation and retroactive validation showed ANN models to significantly outperform MLR and persistence (i.e. forecast yield is identical to last year's observed yield). As the data were non-stationary, cross-validation was found to be less reliable than retroactive validation in assessing the forecast skill.

The indirect damages as well as the direct damages by a large scale natural disasters are expected. For establishing a method to predict the damage to life and health of residents, the paper offers evaluation methodology by the life expectancy indicator. An application of the methodology to Nankai Trough Earthquake indicates that medical care system is insufficient in many regions for over one month. Furthermore, the prolonged evacuation life brings a new health damage. Evaluation of these phenomena by the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) reveals the difficulty of mitigation of the damages even after one month after the occurrence of earthquake. It is also desirable to enhance the lifeline beforehand. Improvement of medical care and the living environment in evacuation is essential.

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 A large amount of minerals become material flows in and out of urban areas when buildings and infrastructure, such as roads, are constructed and reconstructed. In order to do effective management of materials in a sound material-cycle society, it is necessary to estimate and grasp these material flows. This study describes a comparative MSFA (Material Stock and Flow Analysis) using 4d-GIS in the Nagoya city center for 1970, 1980, 1990, 1997, 2003, and 2009. Material stock in the case study area was found to be increasing, with large material accumulation in the commercial area. Additionaly, it was clarified that changes in the urban structure system has huge impacts on urban metabolism.

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For analyzing the relationship with natural environment and socio-economy that characterized huge materials flow, it is important to understand the dynamics of soil and stone. However, quantitative grasp of "hidden material flow" is not sufficiency performed since it is out of material calculation process. This study presents and discusses the effectiveness of a method to estimate anthropogenic disturbance of soil and sand, based on surface elevation change over time using Digital Elevation Model (DEM). First, a case study was conducted focusing on an area where a large-scale extraction of soil and sand has occurred in Misaki-cho, Osaka Prefecture. In the case study, the viability to estimate the changes of soil movement with GIS by creating raster surface model from DEM based on counter map, aerial photo and satellite image was confirmed. As a result of the estimation sediment movement do to the volume changes as from 75.81 to 81.68 million ton between before and after soil excavation. The differences between estimates and statistics are due to the vertical accuracy of DEM, conversion rate to rock products and natural processes. Despite the estimate error induced by the vertical accuracy, satellite DEM is useful to grasp anthropogenic disturbance in data limited area.

DOI： 10.11353/sesj.28.153

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Other URL： https://agriknowledge.affrc.go.jp/RN/2010892010

 In order to achieve a sustainable society, it is important to grasp the Material Stock (MS) in use by society. Because of lack of statistical data, a new way to estimate MS is needed. In this paper, an estimation model that uses Nighttime-Light data and Synthetic Aperture Radar data is presented. This model was used to calculate the total building floor area in Aichi, Gifu, Mie, and Shizuoka Prefectures. It provides a division between urban and non-urban land use. The results show that in the case of urban land use, linear and non-linear modeling offer high estimation accuracy of ±10%. However, only linear modeling was accurate for non-urban land use. These accuracy levels are confident enough to be used for other regions or other countries in future research.

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 For the advancement of a recycling society, it is necessary to quantify the material stock and flow, ranging from natural resource input to waste, that are caused by human socio-economic activities. Global material analysis using detailed scales and uniform data is needed, but restricted due to data availability. In this study, the correlation between PALSAR (Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar) data and building area in Kanto region of Japan were evaluated by combination of multiple-resolutions and land use/land cover. The results show a strong correlation between SAR and building area in the case of mesh cells larger than the satellite resolution since the inherence noises were reduced by the process of averaging when increasing mesh cell size. It was observed that strong correlation can be omitted by prior omission of forest areas with land use/land cover data as it is for our previous study.

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In this study, amount of soil movement of Anthropogenic Disturbance (AD) at Kinki region was estimated by using Geographic Information System(GIS) and Digital Elevation Model(DEM). After the pre and post surface model was created, height decrease area and earth surface imagery contribute to estimate amount of soil movement at soil extraction site as indicators of AD. Consequently, on the one hand, the amount of soil movement by statistical data achieved 517 million m³. On the other hand, the amount of soil movement by DEM achieved 900 million m³. The result shows that about 3.83 million m³ of soil movement, such as Hidden Material Flow was not covered by statistics data.

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 Various policies have been undertaken in Japan for the establishment of a sustainable society. A vast amount of infrastructure in Japan was constructed during the rapid economic growth era, and due to its life span, most of this infrastructure would have to be repaired or demolished in the near future. It is urgently needed to determine the spatial distribution and accumulation of this material stock. This study examined the spatial distribution and transition of material stock in each prefecture using statistical and GIS data. The results show that material stock in 1965 (approx 7.2 billion tons) increased by about three times in 2010 (approx 20.6 billion tons). When comparing structure-types, buildings and roads compose the largest percentage of material stock, while in a material-types comparison, concrete and aggregate are the largest percentage.

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 The purpose of this article is to estimate the yield function of main crops (maize, rice and wheat) using statistics and spatial data of daily weather conditions such as temperature and precipitation, crop, distributions, and crop calendar from 1961 to 2006. By using the estimated parameters of yield function, precipitation rise of 1% increases the production of maize by 0.15%, rice by 0.07%, and decreases the production of wheat by -0.32%, and a temperature rise of 1% decreases the production of maize by 3.78%, rice by 5.70%, and wheat by 1.36% assuming present crop areas, and cropping dates are unchanged. From this result, it can be concluded that a temperature rise induced by global climate change will lead to a reduction in production of major crops, especially rice.

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For realizing sustainable development of the cities, it is necessary to estimate of the flow of material cycles in society. Since a few countries have sufficient data to support stock analysis, a more flexible method with high adaptability is required for material stock and flow analysis in global scale. In this research, as a pioneer step, the correlation between PALSAR data and area of building has been estimated for Aichi Prefecture. Summing the size of aggregation larger than satellite resolution can reduce the noises that were induced by surrounding pixels. It was observed that a strong correlation can be estimated by omitting the forest area with the aid of using land use/land cover data.

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We have developed a model to predict a house-rebuilding trend and to comprehensively evaluate residents' quality of life (QOL), amount of CO₂ emission, and the urban maintenance cost, which is aimed at evaluation of future spatial plans and the environmental performance of the built-up areas on a time-series basis. We used this developed model to perform a case study of the Choja-machi district located in downtown Nagoya City, Japan, and found it possible to reduce CO₂ emissions more at a certain point in the future, as well as over the entire process up to the district's future renewal plan, through an organized renewal of the entire district than through the renewal of each building planned individually, which as a result improved the residents' QOL.

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Other URL： https://agriknowledge.affrc.go.jp/RN/2010850319

Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal)  

Paddy rice fields in Asia account for over 90% of global total rice cultivation area, and the major rice-producing countries of Asia account for over one-half of the world's population. Monitoring and understanding the dynamic changes in paddy rice agriculture in Asia are very important for agricultural sustainability, food and water security, and greenhouse gas emissions. This paper presents a crop choice decision model that dynamically simulates future changes in sown areas of paddy rice in Asia. This model was developed under the framework of Action-in-Context (AiC) with the aim of understanding land users' decisions on crop choices among a set of available alternatives using a crop utility function. Empirical validation for the model conducted after model construction indicated the reliability of the model for addressing the complexity of current agricultural land-use change and its capacity for investigating long-term scenarios in the future. Finally, the model was applied for future scenario analysis over a time frame of 30 years with 5-year increments, beginning from the year 2005. The simulation results provided insights into rates and trajectories of changes in Asian rice areas over the test period, with the resulting implications for future agricultural sustainability in Asia. These outcomes can improve understanding of projected land-use changes and explain their causes, locations and consequences, as well as providing support for land-use planning and policy making.

Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal)  

Rice plays a major role in the global supply and demand for sustainable food production. The constraints of maintaining sustainable rice production are closely linked to the relationship between the distribution patterns of human activity on the planet and economic growth. Global patterns of rice production can be mapped by using various criteria linked to domestic income, population patterns, and associated satellite brightness data of rice-producing regions. Prosperous regions have more electric lighting, and there are documented correlations between gross domestic product (GDP) and nighttime light. We chose to examine global rice production patterns on a geographical basis. For the purposes of this study, each country is considered to be made up of regions, and rice production is discussed in terms of regional distribution. A region is delineated by its administrative boundaries; the number of regions where rice is produced is about 13,839. We used gridded spatial population distribution data overlain by nocturnal light imagery derived from satellite imagery. The resultant relationship revealed a correlation between regional income (nominal values of GDP were used) and rice production in the world. The following criteria were used to examine the supply and demand structure of rice. Global rice consumption = "caloric rice consumption per capita per day" multiplied by "regional population values". Regional rice yields = "country-based production" divided by "harvested area" (multiple harvests are taken into account). Regional rice production = "regional harvested areas" multiplied by "rice yield values". We compared regional rice consumption and production values according to these methods. Analysis of the data sets generated a map of rice supply and demand. Inter-regional shipping costs were not accounted for. This map can contribute to the understanding of food security issues in rice-producing regions and to estimating potential population values in such regions.

Publishing type：Research paper (international conference proceedings)  

The most direct impact of humans on their natural surrounding is the use of land. This study proposes methodology for explaining spatial distribution of land using country based model the possibilities of using spread sheet software. The ratio of urban population is applied for country based land use change such as Forest area, Agricultural area and Other use. The land use data provided by US Geological Survey is classified into 25 categories. These 25 categories are reclassified to the countries based on 3 categories such as agriculture, forestry, other area. USGS based spatial distribution and country based land use and cover change are combined. Inserting country based land use change values into spatial datasets, the changed area between year 1990 and 2000 are extracted.

Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal)  

Land use and its dynamics have attracted much attention from researchers due to their ecological and socio-economic implications. Many studies have used a modelling approach to evaluate land use changes and their effects. Most of these models were designed for the analysis of past, present and future cropland changes at different scales and few have been designed for the study of dynamic changes in sown areas of crops within croplands. This paper presents an integrated modelling approach to simulate dynamically the changes in sown areas for the world's major crops at a global scale. This approach was based on three core models. A crop choice decision model, the Multinomial Logit model, was used to track and simulate the crop choice decisions made by individual farmers. A crop yield model, the GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model, was utilized to estimate yields of different crop types under a given biophysical and management environment, while a crop price model, the International Food Policy and Agricultural Simulation (IFPSIM) model, was employed to assess the price of crops on the international market. Through data exchange, the crop choice decision model was linked with the crop yield and crop price models to allow the study of the dynamic feedback loop between changes in agricultural land use and biophysical and socio-economic driving factors. Sensitivity analysis and empirical validation for the model were conducted after the construction of the model. The model validation indicated the reliability of the model for addressing the complexity of current agricultural land use changes and its capacity for investigating long-term scenarios in the future. Finally, the model was used to simulate future scenarios over a time frame of 30 years with five-year increments, beginning from the year 2000. The simulation results provided insights into potential global cropping patterns, variation in rates and trajectory of changes in sown areas for major crops over the test period. These results can improve understanding of projected land use changes and explain their causes, locations and consequences, and provide support for land use planning and policy making. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Publishing type：Research paper (international conference proceedings)  

The world population is expected to exceed nine thousand million in A.D. 2050. Here is a possibility that the food supply and demand situation may tighten on a global scale under the influence of population increase, economic development and global warming. To prepare this situation, it is necessary to construct a model for explaining the changes of food supply and demand and the spatial change of the planted area in view of population increase, economic development, and the influence of global warming. In this study, a model is constructed that explains the spatial-temporal changes of the wheat, maize, rice and soybean planted areas on an item-by-item basis by integrating the models constituting Land Productivity Sector, Land Use Choice Sector, and International Trade Sector and can represent actual values of planted areas of, respectively, wheat, maize, rice and soybean by integrating an international trade model developed by FAO and a land use change model based on a utility function. The above-mentioned model is a partial equilibrium model in which income, population and exchange rates are given as an exogenous variable. In addition, we carried out an attempt to made predictions until year 2020 using the economic growth rate predictions based on the Special Report on Emission Scenarios by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and future population prospects by United Nations.

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Other URL： http://hdl.handle.net/10236/1145

Presentation type：Oral presentation (general)  

Venue：神戸大学  

Presentation type：Oral presentation (general)  

Venue：オンライン  

Presentation type：Oral presentation (general)  

Venue：徳島大学  

Presentation type：Oral presentation (general)  

Venue：土木会館  

Presentation type：Oral presentation (general)  

Venue：オンライン  

Presentation type：Oral presentation (general)  

Venue：オンライン  

Presentation type：Oral presentation (general)  

Venue：オンライン  

Presentation type：Oral presentation (general)  

Presentation type：Poster presentation  

Presentation type：Oral presentation (general)  

Venue：オンライン  

Presentation type：Oral presentation (general)  

Venue：オンライン  

Presentation type：Poster presentation  

Presentation type：Oral presentation (general)  

Presentation type：Oral presentation (general)  

Venue：オンライン  

Presentation type：Oral presentation (general)  

Venue：東京大学  

Presentation type：Poster presentation  

Venue：徳島大学  

Presentation type：Oral presentation (general)  

Venue：名古屋大学  

Presentation type：Oral presentation (general)  

Venue：名古屋大学